SFB 504 discussion paper 05-37

Patric Andersson
Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universitšt Mannheim & Center for Economic Psychology, Stockholm School of Economics
L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim; PO Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden

Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident: A research note on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment*

The present paper addresses the question whether overconfidence is an individually stable phenomenon. A within-subjects design was used to investigate whether judgmental miscalibration also reflects tendency to make flawed self-assessments. While the former notion refers to the tendency of individuals to put unrealistic beliefs in their judgments, the latter concerns the tendency of individuals to make inaccurate evaluations of their abilities and performance. On the whole, the paper finds little support that those two tendencies should be related. Depending on the employed measurement, the participants were found to be simultaneously overconfident, well-calibrated, and underconfident.
Z1 Axel Boersch-Supan
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