SFB 504 discussion paper 99-24

Elke Kurz
MPI for Human Development
Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin
kurz@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Gerd Gigerenzer
MPI for Human Development, Berlin
Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin
gigerenzer@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Ulrich Hoffrage
Sonderforschungsbereich 504
L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim
hoffrage@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Representations of uncertainty and change: Three case studies with experts

Abstract:

[from the conclusion section:] In this chapter, we have argued (i) that the calculi of uncertainty and change provide multiple representations, which bridge the past and present, (ii) that the choice of representation is already part of the solution of the problem, and (iii) that learning to choose an appropriate representation can help experts to understand uncertainty and change, and to communicate successfully with their clients and students on such topics as how to assess risk. As the studies with AIDS counselors and physicians dramatically demonstrated, the training of experts does not always include learning to choose a suitable representation.

Keywords:

JEL-Classification:

Project:

NN

Creation date:

1998-04-02

Publication Status

Forthcoming in J. Shanteau, P. Johnson, & K. Smith (Eds.), Psychological investigations of competent

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