Natural sampling
In research on probabilistic inference the "natural sampling"-approach offers an explanation for people´s poor performance on tasks concerning probability estimates like the base-rate fallacy. Natural Sampling refers to the sequential acquisition of information. It is assumed that, as humans evolved, the "natural" format of information was frequencies as actually experienced in a series of events, rather than probabilities or percentages. Because of this "evolutionary advantage" of frequencies, people have less problems in processing frequencies rather than probabilities. Thus, a frequency presentation format leads to better performances in a number of tasks in judgment and decision making.
See also:
base-rate fallacy
Literature:
Gigerenzer & Hoffrage (1995)
