Hindsight bias
It is a common observation that events in the past appear simple, comprehensible, and
predictable in comparison to events in the future. Everyone has had the experience of
believing that they knew all along the outcome of a football game, a political
election or a business investment. The hindsight bias is the tendency for people with
outcome knowledge to believe falsely that they would have predicted the reported outcome
of an event. After learning of the occurrence of an event, people tend to exaggerate the
extent to which they had foreseen the likelihood of its occurrence.
Synonyms:
Rückschau-Fehler, knew-it-all-along effect, creeping determinism
Continue to:
reverse hindsight bias,
implications for further research,
theoretical explanations
Literature:
Fischhoff (1975),
Hawkins & Hastie (1990)
