Hindsight bias: theoretical and empirical work
More recent studies have come up with models that enable precise forecasting of the strength and direction of the hindsight distortion, using a quantitative basis. Researchers are also attempting to determine how far hindsight decisions affect a personīs trust in their own judgements. They are also trying to determine how far such decisions affect a personīs impression of their competency in future decision-making on the same subject. Another interesting point to be examined is the relationship between hindsight bias and the attribution of responsibility.
implications for further research
Watch out for new SFB 504 discussion papers in 1999!